Escalation of Tory division over Europe

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PA

Anyone who’s followed politics for any length of time knows no party’s more prone to suicidal bouts of indiscipline than the Labour Party.

Unless, of course, it’s the Conservative Party when it’s in the mood.

Just now, the Tories are in more of a mood than they’ve been since the chaotic days of the Major administration, and possibly since 1990, the year the party hacked down Margaret Thatcher in an orgy of political regicide prompted, naturally, by DNA-deep divisions over Europe.

A surely impossible demand from any senior Conservative for David Cameron to accept his manifesto pledge to reduce net migration into the UK to the tens of thousands is valueless on the ground it’s “corrosive of public trust” – in other words because no-one believes it – would be embarrassing enough if delivered in private.

Published in an open letter by Michael Gove, and Boris Johnson (Gisela Stuart’s a co-signatory, but Labour’s internal debate is another story) it amounts to an escalation of a battle that now defies all established principles of government discipline and collective responsibility.

And it does so in a way the prime minister will surely find very difficult to forgive.

‘Bitter conflict’

The Brexiteers point is that EU open borders make immigration control impossible.

It’s effect, though, is to accelerate a descent into internecine warfare which now threatens to make the Conservatives ungovernable if the referendum ends in anything but a decisive victory for the remain campaign.

So bitter has the conflict become, so taut the tension between the rival factions, that angry Eurosceptic Tories talk privately of challenging the prime minister’s position even of Britain votes to stay inside the European Union.

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AP

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David Cameron insists he would carry on as prime minister if Britain votes to leave the EU.

One of the most militant Conservative MPs, Andrew Bridgen, has gone public.

He told me in an interview for BBC Radio 5 live’s Pienaar’s Politics that he believes it “highly likely” at least 50 Tory MPs would sign demands for a vote of no confidence in the PM if the campaign goes on as it has.

More than that, he suggests the Cameron administration could be reduced to what he and others call a “zombie government” by its divided MPs, unable to govern and forced to consider a snap election.

Vote of confidence?

At Westminster, that kind of apocalyptic talk is becoming more common.

Some of the whispering is – and is probably intended to be – hair-raising.

I’ve heard it suggested that three ministers have become so upset by the tone of campaigning on the Remain side led by the prime minister that they are contemplating resigning, not just from the government, but from the Tory whip, effectively quitting the party.

One MP, on the now militant Eurosceptic wing, said letters demanding a vote of confidence in the PM had already been submitted to the chairman of the Conservative 1922 Committee, Graham Brady, who’s a sort of posh shop-steward for Conservative MPs.

Mr Graham himself is bound by a sacred oath of secrecy where such matters are concerned, so we must wait to find out.

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AFP/Getty Images

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The outcome of the UK’s EU referendum will be known on Friday, 24 June

The Sunday Times newspaper carries more mutinous muttering.

Former Environment Secretary, Owen Patterson, told the paper: “The government now has four weeks to behave properly. If they don’t, there are risks they will cause long term damage to the Conservative Party.”

Another, unnamed MP, puts it more bluntly: “When you tell Tories they are immoral for supporting Brexiteers you are going to get a kick in the nuts.”

We’ll see, of course. Everything depends on which side wins the referendum, and perhaps on the margin of victory.

Mr Cameron insists he would carry on as prime minister if Britain votes to leave the EU.

The more common view, shared among his closest supporters, is that he would be toast.

Even a vote to remain, could be a Pyrrhic victory, if the margin is tight.

Until we know the outcome on Friday 24 June, this self-destructive struggle is likely to intensify before it calms again – assuming, of course, the party is not already broken beyond repair.

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